While climate change is undoubtedly a worldwide problem, different regions can expect different consequences. The MENA region needs to recognise its own risks, and responsibilities, when faced with a warming planet.

Climate change policy has reached a crucial stage. In the run-up to the Copenhagen summit on climate change in December, United Nations heads of states recently met in New York to discuss emissions targets. Barack Obama accepted the USA's role in contributing to climate change, and committed to an 80% reduction in emissions by 2050. Chinese President Hu Jintao, while setting no specific emissions targets, at last admitted the need for reductions.However it was Mohamed Nasheed, President of the Maldives, who made the headlines. The Maldives, an archipelago rising less than four metres above sea level at its highest point, has come to represent the plight of many low-lying island nations. In an impassioned plea to the international community, Mr Nasheed claimed that a two-degree rise in world temperatures would result in submersion of his nation and many like it. Inaction in the face of such a threat, he argued, would be tantamount to 'benign genocide'.

Mr Nasheed's reference to genocide was not hyperbole. The possibility of an entire country disappearing under water throws into sharp relief the humanitarian consequences of climate change. Countries in the MENA region face equally alarming problems, even if the risk of total submersion is less immediate.

The MENA region makes a significant contribution to global emissions. MENA countries produce around seven per cent of worldwide greenhouse gases while accounting for around six per cent of the world's population. While this ratio is better than the USA and China, it is worse than India, Africa and Latin America. More worrying is that emissions are increasing rapidly. Between 1990 and 2004 MENA's emissions grew by 88 per cent, the third fastest increase in the world.

The UN estimates that 300,000 people already die every year as a direct result of climate change. Many countries can hope to minimise the consequences of their contributions to climate change, either by their favourable geography or through expensive mitigation strategies. However MENA's relatively high rate of pollution is reflected in dire and potentially unavoidable consequences for the region. MENA countries have historically been plagued by drought. Now, increasing water shortages carry the threat of large-scale emigration, resource wars and widespread mortality.

This places the MENA region in a difficult position. It clearly has an incentive to take a lead on climate action, but in a region that depends so heavily on oil production, arguing for reducing reliance on fossil fuels is never going to be popular.

It is interesting to compare the Maldives' predicament. In his address to the New York conference, Mr Nasheed made the unprecedented pledge that his nation will be carbon neutral by 2020. However the Maldives relies heavily on tourism to maintain its economy, tourism that in turn relies on air travel. Without significantly reducing air traffic into and out of the country, the Maldives cannot hope to become carbon neutral, other than by means of carbon offsets, the effectiveness of which are disputed by environmental groups.

Both cases clearly demonstrate a dichotomy. On the one hand is economic dependence on fossil fuels; on the other there is the need to take an active role in averting climate catastrophe. Not that this is unique to MENA or the Maldives. These examples simply represent the dilemma facing a world addicted to oil.

However it is not all bad news. In an interesting twist, the National Geographic recently reported that areas of the Sahara are actually re-greening. Scientists have attributed this to increasing air humidity, itself caused by global warming. While it is to be expected that the progress of climate change will throw up further surprises, such quirks should not distract from the very real threats that face the MENA region. Here, perhaps more than anywhere else, ecological responsibilities go hand-in-hand with liabilities.

William Widdess
October 2009
With thanks to Oliver Hayes at Friends Of The Earth