Move boosts credibility of Special Tribunal, undermines state
By Michael Bluhm
Daily Star staff
Thursday, April 30, 2009

BEIRUT: The impact of Wednesday's release of the four generals from detention could range from being the deciding factor in June's parliamentary elections to having a negligible effect on the vote, a number of analysts told The Daily Star. The Special Tribunal for Lebanon on Wednesday ordered the immediate release of the four former security chiefs, who had been arrested in August 2005 on the recommendation of the then-chief of the UN team investigating the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Hariri's killing sparked a wave of mass protests that led to the withdrawal of Syrian troops after a 29-year presence in Lebanon, and the March 14 political camp born during those demonstrations was partly founded on the principle of bringing Hariri's killers to justice.

However, the generals' continuing incarceration without being charged became a cause celebre for the Hizbullah-led March 8 political camp, and the liberation of the four could tip the tight June 7 general elections in March 8's favor, said Hilal Khashan, head of the department of political studies and public administration at the American University of Beirut.

"The results of the elections will change," Khashan said. "The Hizbullah-led opposition will have a majority in the Parliament. What happened today was dramatic."

The March 14 Forces had also based much of its political stance on opposition to Syria, which many March 14 leaders blamed for Hariri's assassination, and the four former security chiefs were perceived in this light as collaborators with Damascus - a view upended by the tribunal's decision, Khashan added.

"Their whole argument has been shattered now," he said.  "Today's decision ... will reflect positively on Hizbullah and the [March 8] opposition."

Observers have long said the June vote would come down to Christian majority districts, and Wednesday's ruling provides a perfect opening for the March 8 coalition's top Christian leader, Free Patriotic Movement head MP Michel Aoun, to defend his partnership with Hizbullah and push his anti-corruption agenda, said retired General Elias Hanna, who teaches political science at Notre Dame University.

Aoun "will start to attack the judicial system and try to attack the corruption," Hanna added. "It's going to hurt March 14 ... especially the Christians. This is something deeply damaging."

From another point of view, however, the generals' release represents merely an initial legal step - the generals could still be indicted or called as witnesses - and neither exonerates or implicates Syria in Hariri's killing; from this perspective, Wednesday's order will not score political points for either faction, said Amr Hamzawy, senior associate at the Carnegie Middle East Center.

"The decision to release the four officers cannot be put simply as a victory for one side over the other side," Hamzawy said. "It's not a statement on the innocence of the officers. It's a technical issue."

Lebanon's rival political camps will doubtlessly try to exploit the issue for political gain, but with the political landscape deeply divided for years between the March 14 and March 8 camps, the generals' going free will likely not budge anyone from one camp to another, Hamzawy added.

"It's not creating a new component," he said. "It's but one [element] in the polarization we are seeing.

"It will not have such a great impact," he said.

With the generals' release largely expected, the agreement made at Tuesday's national dialogue session to maintain a calm atmosphere during the election campaign also looks like a signal that feuding politicians will not exaggerate the generals' release for political gain, said Oussama Safa, executive director of the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies.

Politicians will not take the freed officers on campaign road shows, and the issue will fade as the parliamentary elections approach, Safa added.

"They'll probably use it, but it won't be taken to extremes," he said, adding that he believed the generals would not take active political roles immediately.

"It's not going to give comparative advantage. It's not going to remain a very sore issue until the eve of the elections," Safa said.

While Wednesday's order shoves the tribunal back into the political spotlight in Lebanon, the decision paradoxically demonstrates the court's determination to keep politics out of the Hariri case and to rely only on judicial standards in its decision-making, Hamzawy said.

"It's trying to take out the politicization of the past years," Hamzawy added. "It confirms that the tribunal is committed to very high standards of justice. It's definitely a first positive step."

By issuing the order to set the generals free relatively quickly after receiving all Hariri materials form the Lebanese judiciary, the tribunal has only strengthened its legitimacy, Safa said.

"The releasing of the four officers reinforces the credibility of the court," Safa added. "They're acting in an objective manner and not in a political way."

The Lebanese judiciary, meanwhile, can expect a backlash for holding the four officers for three-and-a-half years when the tribunal did not see sufficient evidence to continue holding the four, pointed out Fadia Kiwan, director of the school of political science at St. Joseph University.

"Many questions are being raised today about the reason these people have been arrested for such a long time," she said. "It's weakening the position of the state."

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